Foreign exchange (FX) traders are always looking for trends and economic outlooks that may help🍬 them to predict the potential movement of currencies.
Some examine economic reports, the gross domestic pr⛎oduct (GDP), trade relations, and more. Some watch the equity markets.
Equity markets involve thousands of firms around the world that produce hundreds ꦇof reports ever𓂃y day.
That's why equities may be a useful source of insight for currency traders who want to understand where the FX market is going.
Key Takeaways
- Currencies fluctuate relative to one another based on supply and demand; when investors demand more of a currency, it strengthens relative to other currencies.
- When there is an excess supply of a currency, it weakens relative to other currencies.
- Focusing on certain equity stocks can provide insight into the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:foreign exchange market because such companies are large, deal on a global scale, and transact in various currencies.
- The hedging strategies used by companies are an indicator of their outlook on future currency fluctuations.
- Equities alone are not a prudent way to predict the direction of currencies; government balance sheets, monetary policy, and interest rates play a major role in forex markets.
Supply and Demand Move Currencies
Ultimately, a currency fluctuates based on 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:supply and demand characteristics. When more investorܫs demand a currency, it will likely strengthen relative to other currencies. When there is less demand and excess supply, the opposite is true.
Supply and demand, ﷺhowever, are influenced by many faᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚctors that lead to constant currency fluctuations. Equities are one of these factors.
Global Companies Can Influence FX
The 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:foreign exchange markets are a global market and bigger than any other securities market. So when thinking about equities and their influe🐭nce on forex markets, you have to think globally.
The best compa🌠nies to study are those 🌸with international operations and that conduct transactions in various currencies. For example, as the biggest retailer on the planet, Walmart deals with foreign exchange issues all the time. Another great name is Coca-Cola.
These global consumer companies transact with buyers all over the world and t😼hus can impact the forex market.
A useful observation that can relate to forex may be about a global company's products and how necessary they are to consumers.
Things like food, gasoline, and medicine could be more u💫seful, and in demand, than h﷽aute couture clothing or jewelry.
Consequently, a company like Kraft, which sells food all over the world, would be more useful to study for an impact on the forex market than Tiffany's, the iconic jewelry store retailer.
Strong Stock Markets, Greater Capital Inflow
In addition, when companies, global o𒁏r not, have successful financial results, the stock market reflects this. Th⛦at can affect investor interest, which in turn may influence a demand for currency.
Furthermore, a strong stock market usually reflects a strong economy. That can attract ♊investors and foreign capital, and💖, again, impact the domestic currency relative to others.
Weak Currencies Boost Exports
Equities can also influence forex markets in another way. A country's 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:weak currency favors its exporters because exports are cheaper for buyers abroad. That helps fuel the growth, profits, and earnings of those exporters. When earnings grow, equity 🦂markets tend to do well, and attract interest that can affect forex.
Such a situation is most likely to occur in equity markets backed by the major global currencies such as the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the British pound, among others.
Emerging Markets
Where global companies invest is often a leading sign that those companies see strong economic growth. Where there is strong 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:economic growth, there is u𝓀sually greater demand f🦩or the currency.
More importanꦏtly, a strong economy often suggests a s🤡olid government balance sheet that helps support currency prices.
The best growth opportunities are considered by many to be in 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:emerging and developing markets. As a result, nearly all global companies have focused significant growth efforts in those parts of the world.
Commodities
The 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:commodities market can also shed light on the performance of forex. Consider the main global commodity, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:crude oil. Global oil prices are den💞🌱ominated in U.S. dollars.
The price of ♍oil can spike when the value of the U.S. dollar declines relative to major globꦡal currencies. So the oil price has to go up in order to equalize the price that other foreign countries pay in their home currencies.
While other global commodities—sugar, corn, and wheat—offer similar insights, oil is the most 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:significant commodity relating to the foreign exchange markets.
Fast Fact
The U.S. dollar has benefited when crude oil’s price declines. Even when the price of oil shot up after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the USD strengthened against many global currencies because of the demand for USD in troubled times and increasing inflation.
Financial Statements Can Reveal FX Views
It's not until a company reports its earnings that one can see whether there could be an effect on currency movement.
At that point, investors can analyze management statements for an outlook on currency fluctuations. Look for hedging strategies that a company may implement going forward.
And, perhaps it's not the type of products a company sells that best identify forex movements, but how necessary or essential they are to consumers.
Things like food, gasoline, and medicine would be more useful, and in demand, tꦦhan haute couture clothing or jewelry.
A company like Kraft, which sells food all over the world, may be more useful to study for an impact on the forex market than Tiffany's, the iconic jewelry store retailer.
Tip
Investors should not rely on companies and the equity markets alone for insight into currency ma♔rket movements. Activities of governments have a more direct impact.
Governments Drive FX Markets
As outlined above, companies, equities, and stock markets may influence forex. But the direction of changes in value of currencies i⛄s influenced most by the policies of governments.
The reality is that equities alone are not a prudent way to predict the direction of currencies. Government balance sheets, monetary policy, and 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:interest rates play a more major role in forex markets.
The value of money is determined by its supply and 🦩demand, which is generally determined by the government via interest rate changes or other policy movementsꩵ.
Unfortunately, using equities as a sole leading indicator is unwise when governments can influence movements at will.
Strong Economies Make Strong Currencies?
It's far from 100% accurate to say that a strong economy means a strong currency.
During the 2007-2008 financial crisis in the U.S., the Japanese yen continued to strengthen relative to the U.S. dollar, even though Japan's economy had been in a funk for decades.
But the U.S. economy at the time was weakening faster than Japan's economy.
Should Investors Worry About FX Movements?
Those investing for the long term probably shouldn't be concerned, especially if their portfolios are well diversified. What they should understand is that short-term forex fluctuations are the rule, not the exception.
How Are Equities and Forex Different?
A fundamental difference is that equities are shares of stock issued by companies and sold on a stock market. Forex is foreign exchange—currencies of countries around the world—and trades on the foreign exchange markets. The forex market is the largest financial market in the world. And it's far more liquid than the stock market.
Who Controls the Forex Market?
The forex market is controlled by no specific company or organization. It's a decentralized market operating in various countries.
The Bottom Line
Forex markets are vast, complex, and dynamic markets. Using one data point, such as equities, to forecast future forex directions isn't advised.
While equities can be useful 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:indicators, investors should be aware that using equities alone 💝to forecast forex market behavior most likely w෴ill fail to provide an accurate projection.