Is Federal Reser🎃ve Chair Jerome Powell becoming a 🀅dove?

Powell has historically leaned in favor of higher interest rates, accordiꩵng to a recent review by Deutsche Bank. However, he now could be spearheading the charge to🍨 lower rates faster than some of his Federal Reserve colleagues would advocate for, the analysis showed.

Record Showꦍs Powell a Centrist Who Leans ‘Hawkish’

In terms of economics, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:“doves” tend to favor lowe𒁏r interest rates, while “hawks” generally press for interest rates to be higher🌱𝓡. 

From 2012 to 2013 and 2016 through 2018, then-Federal Reserve Gov. Powell mostly stuck to the center of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Federal Open Mark♏et Committ꧑ee (FOMC) member projections, Deutsche Bank said. When he d💧id deviate, Powell tended to vote for higher rates🤡.

“Some of this skew appears to be motivated by Powell's economic forecasts, which tended to be more optimistic on growth and the labor market and near the median on inflation,” said the note authored by a team led by economists Matthew Luzzetti and Amy Yang.

Recent Comments Skew in Dovish Direction

While current voting records are anonymous—including the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:projections on the “dot plot”—the Deutsche Ba♔nk review sought to match the current dots with FOMC members based on t🎉heir public comments.

According to their estimation, Powell’s votes line up with the bottom tier of interest rate projections. His current views are similar to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果🌃体彩网:Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Sa✃n Francisco Fe🌠d President Mary Daly, and other “doves” who have said weaker laꦑbor conditions may require the Fed to act more quickly to lower interest rates.

“We put substantial weight on Powell's recent comments, which clearly skew in a dovish direction relative to many of his colleagues,” the analysis said. 

Powell’s interest rate projections were about half a percentage point lower than the “hawks,” including 澳洲幸运5官方开奖𓃲结果体🔴彩网:Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman and 澳洲🍒幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester.

Shift Could Set Powell Up to Lead on Rate Cuts

The review noted when Powell was pressing for higher rates, it was in different 🐻economic conditions, before the pandemic and amidst strong growth. Powell’s position change🍬 showed he can stay ahead of the curve, the note said. 

“Powell's flexibility to be above the median during a hiking cycle and below the median as the Fed prepares to cut rates likely reflects him taking leadership to lead the Committee toward the appropriate direction of travel,” the note said. 

The review comes ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of July, where officials are expected to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:keep interest rates unchanged, though some 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:economists have pres𒁏sed f🍌or a rate cut. The Fed is widely expected to start cutting its benchmark rate, which is at a 23-year high, before the end of the year as data shows economic activity slowing and inflation moderating.