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The Average Cost of American Holiday Spending

Holiday retail sales are expected to grow 2.5% to 3.5% in 2024 over 2023's numbers

A shopper with shopping bags

Csondy / Getty Images 

The winter holiday shopping season begins in the fall for many consumers. From the shopping frenzies of Black Friday and 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Cyber Monday to the last-minute sales just before the actual holidays happen, shoppers feverishly continue to try to find the perfect meaningful gifts💛 for everyone on their list. 

With gifts, parties, decorations, and high 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:inflation, the holiday season in Ameriಞca is becoming more expensive. Below is a look at the average cost of the American holiday season and why the cost is steadily rising.

Key Takeaways

  • Consumer spending on gifts and other holiday expenses in the U.S. has increased year over year since 2009.
  • Americans expect to spend more during the holidays in 2024 compared to previous years.
  • Over the past decade, e-commerce has captured an increasing percentage of holiday spending.

Planned Winter Holiday Spending for 2024

Holiday retail sales in November and December 2024 are expected to grow 2.5% to 3.5%, to a new record of between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. That's a jump from the $955.6 billion record set in 2023. In 2022, it was a $929.5 billion record. Prior to this, sales averaged an increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, according to the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:National Retail Federation (NRF).

Chart of Historical Holiday Sales and 2023 Forecast

Some segments, such as 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:candy and decorations,🐷 can see consumer spending kick up as early as September. In 2023, the top four gift cat🃏egories consumers planned to spend on were:

In 2023, many of these gifts were purchased over Thanksgiving weekend by a record-estimated 182 million shoppers. This was 15.7 million more people than in 2022 and is the highest estimate since NRF began tracking this data in 2017.

In 2024, the NRF expects online and other non-store sales to increase between 8% and 9% to between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion over the holidays. This figure was up from $273.3 billion in 2023 and $255.8 billion in 2022.

Fast Fact

The NRF references the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE𝐆) inflation index instead of the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Consumer Price Index (CPI) because the former breaks out expenditures into the same components that the NRF measures. PCE inflation rates tend to be lower than those of the CPI.

The Impact of Inflation on Spending

Higher prices and inflation continue to weigh on the minds of consumers. Many shoppers plan to start spending as early as November on their holiday shopping. About 60% of those surveyed in 2023 by the NRF indicated they would do so to help keep their budget intact while 41% of shoppers said they didn't want to pass up the lower prices and major promotions offered by retailers.

澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024. In August 2024, the PCE price index increased 2.2% (2.7% excluding food and energy) compared to a year prior. Because the PCE considers the substitution of one (lower-priced) product for another, it helps explain increased consumer spending in an inflated market.

Nov. 1 to Dec. 31

The winter holiday season, as defined by the National Retail Federation.

Which Day is Bigger, Black Friday or Cyber Monday?

Black Friday is the largest and most popular shopping day of the year, according to the National Retail Foundation. The organization reported that 130.7 million people or 72% of those surveyed planned to shop on Black Friday in 2023. Cyber Monday follows as the second most popular shopping day of the year with 39% of shoppers or 71.1 million people planning to spend on that day.

How Much Do People Plan to Spend During the Holiday Season?

According to Deloitte, the average budget per person for 2024 is $1,778. That's an 8% jump compared to 2023. In 2023, it was $1,652. This is significantly higher than the number reported for 2023 by the National Retail Federation: $875.

Where Are People Going to Shop During the Holidays?

The National Retail Federation expects most shoppers to spend their money online. As many as 58% of consumers will go online to do their shopping. That's followed by 49% who said they would open their wallets at department stores and 48% who plan to shop at discount stores.

How Many People Are Traveling for Thanksgiving?

According to the Thanksgiving Travel Survey from The Vacationer, an estimated 132 million Americans plan to travel for Thanksgiving in 2024, which is 5.75% more than 2023.

The Bottom Line

Americans’ spending has increased each holiday season since 2010, and that tradition is expected to continue in 2024. Holiday retail sales are expected to grow 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023's record sales, reaching a new record. More people are expected to spend more individually compared to previous years while travel is supposed to rise. Of course, we won’t know how much people actually spend until the holiday season is over. Stay tuned.

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  7. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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  9. Deloitte.
  10. The Vacationer.
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