Concerns about China's economic growth led to a massive shift into U.S. equities and away from emerging market stocks over the past m🌌onth, according to Bank of America's latest survey of global fund managers.🐻
Key Takeaways
- Fund managers piled into U.S. equities and away from emerging market stocks in August.
- Allocation into U.S. equities rose 29 percentage points in early September, one of the biggest inflows recorded by Bank of America.
- Allocation into emerging market stocks tumbled 25 percentage points, largely reflecting outflows from China.
- No fund managers expect a stronger Chinese economy within the next 12 months, down from 78% in February.
- Just over a fifth of global fund managers believed "short China equities" to be the most crowded trade, second only to "long big tech" at 55%.
Allocation into U.S. equities rose 29 percentage points in early September, in one of the biggest inflows recorded by Bank of America, and the first 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:overweight reading since August last year. Meanwhile, allocation into emerging market stocks tumbled 25 percentage points to just 9% overweight, the smallest overweight share since November last year, largely reflecting outfl𝓡ows from China.
No fund managers said they expect a stronger Chinese economy within the next 12 months, down from 78% in February, and lower than the 2% share in September last year, just before China's reopening from strict COVID-19 lockdowns.
One-third of respondents suggested they now view Chinese real estate as the most likely spark for a global credit event or 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:financial crisis, followed closely by U.S. 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:commercial real estate. They were also skeptical of policy reไsponses from China's government, with just 15% expecting a fiscal "bazooka" or massive round of stimulus.
Among likely stimulus options, a slight majority at 55% say they think the Chinese government will aim to boost the country's property market. Just 12% believe it will launch a big round of fiscal stimulus financed by bonds, while 15% do not expect any stimulus measures.
Just over one-fifth of global fund managers believed "short China equities" to be the most crowded trade, second only to "long big tech" at 55%.