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Investor Interest in Small-Cap Stocks Keeps on Surging

Russell 2000 Has Outpaced S&P 500 This Month

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday.

Timothy A. Clary / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Small-cap stocks rose Tuesday morning, extending a recent run of hot sessions for the Russell 2000.
  • Investors have lately been searching for ways to invest in smaller companies, with Google searches for a small-cap ETF jumping, according to DataTrek.
  • The outlook for smaller companies hinges in part on the prospect of interest-rate cuts, as well as the outcome of the ongoing earnings season.

Small-cap stocks moved higher early Tuesday. The Russell 200🦋0 was recently up nearly 1%, outperforming the S&P 500 in morning action.

The morning's trading follows a surge in interest in smaller shares. DataTrek Research said in a note Monday that, based on Google Trends, searches for "IWM"—the iShares Russell 2000 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:exchange-traded fund—recently jumped to multiyear highs.

That comes as the index itself has climbed lately, outperforming the S&P 500 over the past month and, according to Goldman Sachs research, posting its best performance against the Nasdaq 100 since 2002 in a recent two-week period.

"Now, the Russell’s longer-run underperformance versus the S&P 500 has started to reverse, and small investors are taking notice," DataTrek wrote. "Attention drives capital flows. When that focus and money goes into a single stock, it is fair to call it a 'meme' investment."

Russell 2000 and S&P 500 stock price chart over past month

TradingView

Interest Rate Outlook, Earnings Reports in View

Some of their recent rise can be attributed to investors' belief that interest-rate cuts are on the horizon, since lower rates can 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:benefit smaller companies that often carry more debt than their larger counterparts. Second-quarter earnings, however, could 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:take some steam out of smaller shares if they point toward a weaker second half—especially, perhaps, i🔥f big companies turn in stronger results.

DataTrek believes small caps can continue to perform. "When that interest and capital flows to an entire segment of the market, we have trouble dismissing it outright as a fad," its note read. "No doubt U.S. small caps will be volatile over the next few months, but we still believe they can do well" over the balance of the third quarter.

Comerica Wealth Management predicts two interest-rate cuts this year, a backdrop it said Monday provides "the potential for future tailwinds as the U.S. economy avoids recession."

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  1. Goldman Sachs. "US Small Cap Rotation Triggered by Macro, Boosted by Positioning." July 22, 2024.

  2. DataTrek. "DataTrek Morning Briefing." July 22, 2024.

  3. Comerica Wealth Management. "Weekly Market Update." July 22, 2024.

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