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Tariffs Would Reduce The Federal Deficit, Budget Office Says

US President Donald Trump receives German Chancellor Merz in the Oval Office.
US President Donald Trump receives German Cha🐻ncellor Merz in the Oval Office.

Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Imag👍es

Key Takeaways

  • President Donald Trump's tariffs will bring in more than enough money to pay for the Republicans' tax cut bill, the Congressional Budget Office found.
  • The analysis assumes tariffs will remain as they were on May 13, although Trump has frequently and significantly raised and lowered tariffs in recent months.
  • The analysis reached a different conclusion than some other independent economists, who have estimated that the bill and tariffs together will worsen budget deficits.

The Republicans' spending bill would blow a big beautiful hole in the federal deficit, but President Donald Trump's tariffs would patch it, according to the government's nonpartisan budget watchdog. 

President Donald Trump's economic agenda would reduce federal deficits over the next 10 years compared to doing nothing, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday. The CBO says that forecast holds true even after accounting for how tariffs would boost infl﷽ation and slow down economic growth.

The sweeping tax cut and spending bill passed by the House of Representatives last month would add $2.4 trillion to budget deficits, while the tariffs in place as of May 13 would collect enough revenue to reduce deficits by $3 trillion, the research office said.

The analysis bolstered Trump's financial argument for passing the bill, which makes many of his 2017 tax cuts permanent while 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:slashing Medicaid and SNAP, among many other benefits.

Critics of the bill argue that it worsens, rather than helps, the rapidly growing national debt and threatens the government's long-term financial stability. Some previous analyses had found that the tariffs would not be enough to offset the tax c𓄧uts.

The CBOs' estimates came with several caveats, not the least of which is that it's based on tariff policy that changes daily, and could change even more as Trump cuts deals with individual countries. Independent economists, including those at the Tax Foundation think tank, have warned that the tariffs will hurt the overall budget picture by slowing the economy and raising prices.

The CBO agrees that tariffs would boost prices, pushing up inflation in 2025 and 2026 by 0.4 percentage points, and shrinking the economy by 0.6% by 2035.

Still, the White House took the analysis as a vindication of Trump's economic strategy.

"By every honest metric, President Donald J. Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill dramatically improves the fiscal trajectory of the United States and unleashes an era of unprecedented economic growth," the White House said in a statement.

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  1. Congressional Budget Office. "."

  2. Congressional Budget Office. "."

  3. Tax Foundation. "."

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