Treasury yields climbed by the most in weeks on Monday as markets continued to recalibrate their interest rate expectations while assessing the likelihood of a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:soft landing for the U.S. economy.  

The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.19% Monday afternoon, its highest level since late July. The 11 basis-point, or 0.11 percentage-point, increase was its biggest intraday rise 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:since Oct. 4 when a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:stronger-than-expected jobs report assuaged Wall Street’s 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:recession fears. 

There was no obvious catalyst for Monday’s rise, but yields have been 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:trending upward ever since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the f🐭irst🐼 time in more than 4 years last month.

Data Has Supported the Idea Fed Can Move Slowly

The Fed went big in September, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:slashing its benchmark rate by 50 basis points amid a concern🍰ing uptick in the une🧸mployment rate.

The decision was ౠa controversial one in some corners. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman favored a smaller cut, becoming the first Fed governor to dissent𝔉 from a rate decision since 2005.

In the weeks since, economic data—including 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:September's inflation data—has generally provided positive surprises, supporting Bowman's view that the Fed can take it slow and steady as it returns the federal funds rate to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:a neutral level. That data has also supported the stock market, which has risen to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:record after record in recent weeks.

Market Has Scaled Back Rate Cut Expectations

Wall Street has dramatically curbed its expectations for upcoming rate cuts. On Monday, there was a 64% chance the Fed would cut rates by a total of 50 basis points over its next two meetings, according to federal funds futures trading data.

Markets see no chance oꦑf bigger cuts. The inverse was true a month ago; then, Wall Street saw no chance that the Fed would cut itꦦs key rate by less than 50 basis points over the last two meetings of 2024.