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Inflation Ticked Down Faster Than Expected Ahead Of Tariff Turmoil

A customer buys a bag of three eggs pictured in a bodega in the Bronx borough of New York City on February 27, 2025.

Charly Triballeau / AFP / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of the cost of living, fell faster than expected in February.
  • Prices rose 2.8% over the year in February, down from 3% in January and less than the 2.9% increase forecasters had expected.
  • Inflation is still well over the Federal Reserve's target of a 2% annual rate, and economists have forecast that President Donald Trump's tariffs could push prices up in the months ahead, depending on how much of his threatened import tax increases are actually implemented.

A key inflation measure simmered down in February, the month before a round of President Donald Trump's wide-ranging tariffs kicked in and potentially pushed up the cost of living.

The Consumer Price Index, a measure of the cost of living, rose 2.8% over the 12 months leading up to February, down from a 3% annual increase in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. "Core" inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, fell to a 3.1% annual increase from 3.3%. Both were 0.1 percentage points lower than forecasters had expected, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

After the downtick, inflation was still running well over the Federal Reserve's 2% annual goal, but headed in the right direction. However, President Donald Trump's tariffs against major U.S. trading partners took effect in March, with the countries targeted and the levels of the tariffs rapidly and unpredictably changing. Economists have forecast the tariffs will 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:push up prices for a wide range of products depending on how⛄ much of the import tax increases Trump has threatened are actually implemented.

Amid all the uncertainty, Fed officials have indicated they're 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:reluctant to make any big moves, such as cutting the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The Fed has held the key fed funds rate at a higher-than-usual level, putting upward pressure on borrowing costs for all kinds of loans to discourage borrowing, slow the economy, and quell inflation.

Wednesday's report showed prices are still accelerating faster than people were used to before the pandemic, continuing to squeeze household budgets. However, a few important items got cheaper, pushing the overall inflation rate down. Gasoline fell 1% from the month prior, and airfares fell 4% over the month. At the grocery store, pork, milk, and many fruits and vegetables got cheaper, offsetting a 10.4% monthly spike in the price of eggs.

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