Officials at the Federal Reserve are widely expected to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate this month—but consumer prices are cooling, making the next moves in the anti-inflation campaign less clear.

Experts and traders indicate the Fed is all but guaranteed to raise the fed funds rate by a quarter-point when the central bank’s policy committee meets July 25 and 26. Putting the rate to 5.25% to 5.5% would make it the highest range since 2006 and the 11th hike since the Fed started raising rates from near-zero in March 2022. 

Beyond Ju🗹ly, however, rate hikes are much less certain. 

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, slowed down to 𒊎a 3% annual rꦓate in June from 4% in May. That’s down from its 9.1% peak in June 2022 and closing in on the 2% rate that the Fed targets in the belief that it’s consistent with a healthy and sustainably growing economy. 

By hiking interest rates, the Fed is essentially raising borrowing costs on all kinds of loans for businesses and cons🎉umers, slowing the economy in an effort to get inflation under control. The end of rate hikes could spell lower rates on mortgages and other kinds of credit.

“The Fed has painted itself into a corner as Fed officials' communication has signaled that another rate hike this month is essentially a slam dunk,”wrote Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a commentary Wednesday. “However, the new data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes after this month are needed.”

It wasn’t just the better-than-expected inflation report that bolstered hopes that the Fed is done hiking. Wholesale prices 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:rose slower than expected in June according to a report Thursday, a further indication that inflation pressures are easing. The Fed’s own “Beige Book,” released Wednesday, a report based on interviews with business and economic leaders around the country, noted that “prices increased at a modest pace overall,” with price increases slowing in some parts of the country.

The new data suggests “the end to the Fed’s aggr💙essive rate hike campaign is likely near,” Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, ဣwrote in a commentary Wednesday.

However, sone Fed officials who spoke Wednesday emphasized the need for higher interest🌠 rates to control inflation. 

“Inflation is too high,” Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank in Richmond said Wednesday in Arnold, Maryland, according to a report from Bloomberg. “If you back off too soon, inflation comes back strong, which then requires the Fed to do even more.”

In an essay published Wednesday morning, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari warned that “If inflation is entrenched, or if additional supply shocks hit the economy, policy rates might need to go higher.”

Despite the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:hawkish talk, many economists predict July’s rate hike could be the Fed’s last for the time being, before officials eventually lower interest rates after inflation is well in hand. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate hikes based on fed futures trading data, showed that traders have come to the same conclusion, with the majority betting on the central bank halting its hikes after July.

"The message from the data is obvious: The Fed does not need to hike further," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a commentary Thursday. "They will, later this month, but it will be the last hike, and it will be a mistake."