澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网

Inflation Fell to 3% in June as Consumers Got Widespread Relief From Price Increases

Food shoppers search for vegetables July 1, 2023 at the Hannaford supermarket in South Burlington, Vermont. The inflation rate for food and other durable goods was 9.7% in May, 2023.

Robert Nickelsberg / Getty Images

澳洲👍幸运5官方💧开奖结果体彩网: Inflation is well on its way back to normal.

Key Takeaways

  • Inflation fell to a yearly rate of 3% in June, down from 4% in May according to the Consumer Price Index.
  • Inflation has fallen every month since June 2022, when it peaked at 9.1%, and is now well on its way toward the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2%.
  • Lower inflation doesn’t mean prices are falling—the rapid inflation of the past two years has done its damage to household budgets.
  • Progress against inflation could deter the Fed from raising its benchmark interest rate much higher than it is now and increases the chances that the economy can avoid a recession.

Prices for everyday products and services were 3% higher in June than they were in the same month in 2022 as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). That’s a drop from May’s annual inflation rate of 4%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. 

The widely-watched gauge🐠 of inflation showed prices increased slowly for many products in June, with a few things such as used vehicles even declining, making for a 0.2% increase in overall prices from May. It was the 12th month in a row that year-over-year inflation has decreased.

Lower inflation doesn’t mean prices have fallen back to 2021 levels, just that they’ve stopped increasing so rapidly. Household budgets are still being squeezed by price hikes for things like food, cars,ꦅ and housing over the last few years. 

At inflation’s recent peak in June 2022, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结ꦡ果体彩网:prices surged to 9.1% year-over-year according to the CPI, and that damage remains undone. Still, for consumers, lower inflation is a welcome step toward the stable prices of the pre-Covid era, when yearly inflation was typically around 2% and often lower.

Shoppers are likely to notice the more stable prices and change their purchasing decisions accordingly, which should h🃏elp drive inflation down even more, said Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst for London-based stock broker HYCM. 

“I think you should start to see more normal consumer behavior start to return,” Coghlan said. “I think people will have confidence in delaying future purchases, particularly big ticket items. There's likely to be more price stability, and all of that is just very helpful for the economy.”

Grocery prices were virtually unchanged from May, the third time in the last four months that grocery prices have either decreased or held steady. That’s a stark contrast to last August, when shoppers were paying 13.5% 🐓more for groceries than the year before.

Shelter, the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:largest component of the CPI🦄 measure, which incorporates rent, home ownership costs,𝄹 and hotel rooms, rose 0.4% over the month, a slowdown from May’s 0.5% increase and the lowest uptick since January 2022.

Prices for used cars and trucks fell 0.5% after increasing 4.4% the previous two months, while prices for new ones were ﷽flat after declining 0.1% in May. Gas prices, however, rose 1%, on the heels of a 5.6% drop i🌳n May.  

The report was a sign to officials at the Federal Reserve that their campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes is having its intended effect. Officials at the Fed have raised the central bank’s benchmark fed funds ra🌜te by 5% since March 2022 to its highest since 2007 in an effort to raise borrowing costs on all kinds of loans for businesses and individuals, discourage borrowing and spending, and bring supply and demand back into balanc🐻e to quash inflation.&nbs💧p;

The Fed is aiming for a 2% annual inflation rate as measured by 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:PCE inflation, a price measure that’s separate from CPI but which typically tracks it closely. 

Despite the sharp drop in overall inflation, there were signs in the report that the Fed’s work is not yet done. So-called core inflation, which excludes prices for food and🐟 energy, which are prone to wild swings up and down, fell to 4.8%, the lowest since October 2021 but still well above pre-Covidജ times, when core inflation was around 2%. Still, core prices only rose 0.2% from May to June, the smallest monthly increase since August 2021. 

“I think it is safe to say that inflation is well on its way back to normal, but because the other prints we've had have still been above the Feds target, it doesn't feel that you can psychologically breathe that sigh of relief yet,” Coghlan said.

The central bank is widely expected to raise its 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:benchmark rate by a quarter-point when the Fed’s policy committee next meets later in July. Indeed, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which predicts rate hikes based on Fed futures trading data, pegged the chances of a rate hike at over 92% after Wednesday’s inflation report. 

However, the lower inflation report could deter the Fed from hiking much further after July, Coghlan said. That increases the odds that the economy will be able to shake off the episode of high inflation without having the hangover of a recession—a historically ra꧅re feat called a “𓂃soft landing” by economists

Fewer rate hikes also mean consumers could see some relief on borrowing costs that are 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:influenced by the fed funds rate, such as mortgages. 

Correction—July 12, 2023: A previous version of this article misstated May's yearly increase in the CPI.

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