U.S. employers likely picked up the pace of hiring in November, rebounding from a hurricane-induced job creation slump in October, if forecasters are correct.

A report expected Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to show the economy added 214,000 jobs in November, up from just 12,000 in October, according to a survey of forecasters by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. That pace of job growth would represent a return to normal a month after hurricanes Helene and Milton pushed job creation down to its lowest in three years.

Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to hold steady ꦯat 4.1%, which is low by historical standards.

What Could The Jobs Report Mean For the Fed?

The trajectory of the labor market and the unemployment rate in November could have a larger-than-usual impact on the Federal Reserve's policy decision at its upcoming meeting later in December. Officials will decide whether to lower the central bank's benchmark interest rate.

Slower-than-expected job growth or higher unemployment could cement expectations in financial markets that the Fed will cut rates, putting downward pressure on borrowing costs for all kinds of loans. Conversely, a hotter labor market could push the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.

"This week’s labor market data will likely be a critical factor in the deliberations a few weeks from now,"  Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a commentary.

Lately, economic data such as the jobs report has been pulling the Fed 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:in different directions as it tries to keep rates high enough to push inflation down the last few ticks to its goal of a 2% annual rate but not keep rates so high to set off a business downturn and a severe rise in unemployment.

The Fed held its benchmark fed funds rate at a two-decade high for more than a year until September, whe🦂n policymakers cut it by 50 basis points to prevent a labor market slowdown. They followed that up with a 25-point cut in November.

Since then, inflation has been more stubborn than expected, and employers have 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:pulled back on job openings. They've also avoided ramping up layoffs.

The fed funds rate is linked to job creation because cheaper borrowing costs generally spur more business and make it easier for employers to raise money to hire workers. That's especially true for small businesses that rely on short-term loans for funding, which are closely tied to the fed funds rate, economists said.

Update, Dec. 6, 2024: This article has been updated with the latest forecasts from economists.