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How a Narrowing Trade Deficit Could Be Good News for the Economy

Cargo ships are unloaded at the Maher Container Terminal and APM Terminal on New jersey's Newark Bay on June 1, 2025.
Cargo ships are unloaded at the Maher Container Terminal and APM Terminal on New jersey's Newark Bay on June 1, 2025.

Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. trade deficit fell from an all-time high in March to $61.6 billion in April, the biggest plunge on record.
  • The drop shows that the rush to import items ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has largely ended.
  • While the import surge helped drag down GDP in the first quarter, economists expect a big rebound in the second quarter as exports and trade services grow.

A dizzy✱ing drop in April imports along with growing levels of U.S. exports could lead to a big recovery in the U.S. economy. 

The U.S. trade deficit plunged in April as U.S. imports exceeded exports by $61.6 billion. That’s down from the $138.3 billion revised trade deficit in March, the highest ever recorded as importers 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:rushed to bring in goods ahead of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The data showed that imported goods dropped by 16.3% in April, while rising exports and a rebound in the trade services surplus also helped narrow the gap.

A drop in the trade deficit was anticipated, but it was slightly larger than economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswire expected.

“The economy has essentially hit pause on discretionary imports and is now working off inventories as businesses and consumer📖s delay spending and wait for clarity on tariffs,” wrote Nationwide Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachki♎n.

Growꦅing Export Levels Expected to Fuel Second Quarter GDP Rebound

The result will likely help push a big recovery in the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), which 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter.

The decline in economic growth was largely due to the surge i💎n imports as shippers rushed to get products ൩into the U.S. before tariffs took effect. But with exports growing by $6.2 billion in April, economists expect GDP to expand in the year’s second quarter. 

“The substantial widening [of the trade deficit] in recent months defined the first quarter, where net exports subtracted nearly five percentage points off headline GDP growth,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Shannon Grein and Tim Quinlan. “This early Q2 read tells us to expect a big rev🍷ersal.”

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