Key Takeaways
- Inflation has been stickier than economists have expected, and a recent survey of investors found more people are seeing a greater chance the economy could remain as it is now for an extended period of time.
- Nearly half of respondents to the survey by Deutsche Bank Research think inflation could stay just above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but that the central bank won't raise rates again to try to tame it, ending this inflation cycle with what economists call "no landing."
- Consumers' inflation expectations align with this call and could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Stubborn inflation is pushing some forecasters to believe there's potential for the economy to have “no landing” and continue to run hot despite inflation’s persistent price pressures.
A Deutsche Bank Research survey released this week found 45% of respondents believe the U.S. economy♉ will be in a “n🐼o landing” scenario at the end of 2024. In that case, the economy would continue growing and avoid entering a recession, but inflation would remain above the 2% target.
Inflation has been more stubborn than economists expected to start the year, growing in January according to the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of price increases. It is expected that prices grew again in February, which could complicate the path ahead for t🐽he central bank and bolster the chances of the "no landing" pre✃dictions.
In a no-landing outcome, the Fed would not raise rates to tame inflation, which would be in line with officials' expectations from their most recent meeting.
However, Fed officials 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:think inflation will come down this year. This “澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:soft landing” scenario, where inflation falls to its target and economic growth stays positive, was also favored by 38% of the Deutsche Bank survey respondentꦓs.
Nearly half of respondents said central banks like the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Federal Reserve should tolerate 🦋inflation higher than the current 2% target for a longer period, while a tenth said 🐬that the target should be raised.
“They feel comfortable with this perhaps because their five-year inflation expectations continue to edge down,” said the report from Deutsche Bank researchers Jim Reid a♌nd Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace.
The survey showed respondents expect long-term inflation to drop to 2.6% by the end of the year. That's similar to consumers’ expectations of 2.8% price growth over the next five years, as measured by the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey.
The Federal Reserve is sensitive to consumer sentiment on inflation, as it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Workers and businesses that expect inflation will 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网ඣ:ask more for ꦇtheir goods or services in anticipation of price increases. It al♔so can affect co🐟nsumer spending.
"The public's expectations of future inflation affect spending decisions today and in the near term, and, therefore, also influence current inflation," said Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Monday.