A growing number of business economists believe the U.S. economy can avoid a long-predicted recession.

The share of business economists and other professionals who are at least somewhat confident the economy will have a “soft landing” rather than an economic crash rose dramatically to 69% in August from 30% in March, according to a survey of 169 members of the National Association for Business Economists released Monday.

The survey underscores how much economists have changed their outlook for the U.S. economy in recent months, as data has showed high inflation subsiding with 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:no sign of mass layoffs in sight, challenging the once widely-held view that the Federal Reserve’s campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:would cause a recession. 

The term 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:“soft landing” started to be used in connection with the economy after the success of the Apollo program in 1969, according to reporting by the New York Times. NASA had pulled off the extremely difficult feat of gently landing a spacecraft on the moon, and economists in following years were wondering if the Federal Reserve could similarly bring the economy in for a “soft landing” by subduing the high inflation that plagued the economy in the 1970s without causing an economic crash.

The Fed’s main tool to restrain inflation is raising its benchmark interest rate, which makes all kinds of credit from mortgages to business loans more expen🌠sive. By making it costlier to borrow, the idea is to reduce demand for products and services and take away the upward pressure on prices that causes high inflation. The Fed has a poor track record when it comes to soft landings; out of the last nine times it has battled overheated inflation, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:there have been eight recessions.

The Fed has raised the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:federal funds rate 11 times since March 2022, most recently hiking it to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:its highest since 2001 in July, and Fed officials have said they intend to keep i🅺t there for months, if not raise itꦬ even more. 

In🌌terestingly, corporate leaders overwhelmingly believe this will cause enough d🍸rag on the economy to cause a recession, seemingly putting them at odds with economists surveyed by NABE. 

A survey of 127 CEOs by The Conference Board earlier this month showed that as of the third quarter, 84% believed there would be a recession in the next 18 months.

However, that survey also showed growing optimism, or at least fading pessimism, since it was a decrease from 93% in the previous quarter.