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Mortgage Demand Drops to 28-Year Low As Interest Rates Climb

Florida, St Cloud, Harmony, planned community, new single family home sold sign.

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Mortgage applications fell to their🐭 lowest level in 28 yeꦚars, as mortgage rates skyrocketed this week.

All mortgage applications decreased by 4.2% from a week ago, and the purchase index decreased by 7%, making it 30% lower than the same week one year ago, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 18, 2023.

Key Takeaways

  • The unadjusted purchase index decreased by 7%, making it 30% lower than the same week one year ago.
  • Refinance rates also dropped, contributing to a tight housing supply.
  • Overall mortgage applications fell 4.2% for the week and were 30% lower than a year ago.

Interest Rate Continues to Soar

The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed 15 basis points to 7.31% in the week ended August 18, the highest rate since December 2000. According to Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, this spike had a signi🅠ficant impact on loan applications.

“Applications for home purchase mortgages dropped to their lowest level since April 1995, as homebuyers withdrew from the market due to the elevated rate environment and the erosion of purchasing power," Kan said in a statement. "Low housing supply is also keeping home prices high in many markets, adding to the affordability hurdles buyers are facing."

Drop in Refis Contributes to Low Supply

The 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Refinance Index decreased 3% from the previous week and was 35% lower than the same week one year ago, the MBA data showed. Refinancing activity has been slowed by the fact that most homeowners with existing mortgages have loans dating back to before interest rates began to rise in 2022.

“Home shoppers have seen the number of options dwindle as homeowners are largely content to stay put and enjoy their current home, especially those with a low mortgage rate,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in an analysis.

This 🌄contributes to the lack of ꦬhousing supply since it dissuades people from moving. According to the National Association of Realtors, the available homes on the market at the end of July were historically low.

“Most homeowners continue to enjoy large wealth gains from recent years with little concerns about home price declines,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Still Hope for the Market

According to NAR's latest housing report, some buyer segments remain undeterred despite recent headwinds in the market.

First-time home buyers comprised 30% of sales, up from 27% in June and 29% a year ago. The percentage of all-cash sales increased from 24% to 26% in 2014, a slight increase from last year, and investors and second-home buyers, who typically make up the vast majority of cash sales, bought 16% more homes in July than a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.

By the end of the year, Yun predicts that the 30-year mortgage rate will be near 6%, but that will depend largely on what the Federal Reserve does with its benchmark interest rate.

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  1. Mortgage Bankers Association. “.”

  2. Realtor.com. "."

  3. National Association of Realtors. “.”

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