澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网

November Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls, As Wage Increases Stay Ahead of Inflation

Workers in an open office

Luis Alvarez / Getty images

Key Takeaways

  • The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in November from 3.9% in October as employers added 199,000 jobs.
  • With workers still in high demand, median hourly wages rose 4% over the last 12 months, keeping ahead of inflation.
  • The labor market is still favorable for job seekers, but not as much as it was last year.
  • A slower labor market, without a crash of mass layoffs, is just what officials at the Federal Reserve have aimed to achieve with their campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes.

The labor market may not be red hot a😼nymore, but it’s staying comfortably warm for workers by historical standards. 

U.S. employers added 199,000 jobs in November, according to seasonally-adjusted data released Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was an uptick from the 150,000 jobs added in October, but less than half the average in 2022, when employers added 399,000 jobs in a typical month amid roaring demand for workers. Some of the job gain came from an increase of 30,000 jobs in the auto parts sector, reflecting the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:end of the UAW union strike against Detroit automakers. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9%, relatively low by historic standards although above the 50-year low of 3.4% reached in April.

Parts of the report showed a job market that’s tapped the b🎐rakes from last year but hasn’t crashed. Job growth has slowed, but there are no🅠 mass layoffs in sight.

That’s exactly what policymakers at the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Federal Reserve have been trying to achieve with their campaign of anti-inflation interest rate hikes. The drop in unemployment came as a surprise to forecasters, who had expected it to stay at 3.9%, according to economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal.

The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate to a 22-year high and kept it there. By raising borrowing costs on all kinds of loans taken out by consumers and businesses, the Fed has aimed to slow down the economy. One of the Fed’s main concerns was the labor market—they fearedꦇ competitꦿion for workers was driving up wages, potentially fueling inflation.

Recent reports on the labor market have shown a slowdown in hiring without the mass layoffs that have resulted from past instances where the Fed has rapidly raised interest rates. The market has stayed resilient, with workers continuing to add jobs. It has, however, tilted less in favor of workers lately: In October, there were 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:1.3 open jobs for every unemplo💟yed worker, down from two in March 2022.

One bright spot for workers: typical hourly earnings rose 0.4% in November from October, making for a 4% year-over-year gain—less than the 4.1% annual gain in October, but crucially, greater than 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:the 3.2% annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. In other words, pay raises stayed ahead of pric🌱e increases, meaning that workers got more buying power. 

Those bigger paychecks could be concerning to officials on the Federal Open Market Committee, who are set to meet next week to decide whether to raise the 🦂fed funds rate again.

However, Friday's data did little to budge perceptions among market participants that the Fed will keep its rate steady. Markets were pricing in just a 1.6% chance the Fed would raise its benchmark rate next week, up from 0% on Thursday, according to the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate hikes based on fed funds futures trading data.

“Today’s November jobs report showed there is still some sizzle left in the labor market with wage growth accelerating and the unemployment rate edging down,” Ali Jaffery, an economist at CIBC, wrote in a commentary. “Today’s report will certainly raise some eyebrows in the FOMC and is a reminder that the labor market remains tight. But with inflation persistence less of a challenge, the Fed will continue to remain patient.”

Correction, Dec. 8, 2023— A previous version of this article incorrectly identified the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers in October.

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  3. CME Group. "."

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