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The Treasury Secretary Says Trump Wants Long-Term Interest Rates to Fall—It May Take a While

Scott Bessent, founder and chief executive officer of Key Square Group LP, during an interview in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, June 7, 2024

Stefani Reynolds / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump is looking for longer-term interest rates to fall.
  • Bessent said in an interview Thursday that Trump's policies should influence those longer-term borrowing costs to fall.
  • Analysts, however, think that there isn't much room for long-term borrowing costs to fall in the near future.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bes♓sent is looking for lower💧 long-term interest rates, but a significant drop will take time.

This week, Bessent said President Donald Trump is focused on implementing policies that lower long-term borrowing costs on anything from mortgages to business inves🐲tments to the U.S. government’s borrowing fr💛om global investors.

In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday, Bessent said the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is “going to naturally come down” as Trump’s policies of “energy dominance, deregulation and non-inflationary growth” take shape.

For now, long-term rates are indeed coming down after spiking following Trump’s election. However, some investors are still worried tariffs, and a fresh rouꩵnd of tax cuts could drive up inflation.&nജbsp;

What Is Influencing Long-Term Interest Rates?

Trump has long wanted lower interest rates and, during his last administration, publicly pressed the Federal Reserve to cut its influential 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:federal funds rate to make borrowing cheaper.

The Fed has more control over the short-term rates used on credit cards and other shorter-term lending. But longer-term rates like the 10-year Treasury yield or mortgage rates are more driven by inflation, government bo🦩rrowing and other long-term factors.

Though 澳洲幸运💃5官方开奖结果体彩网:eggꦰs are undoubtedly getting pricier, inflation has slowed significantly from its recent peak. However, the Fed's fight against inflation has 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:recently stalled.

Tariff-related fears that helped send the 10-year soaring upon Trump's election eased when the president 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:temporarily paused 25% tariffs 🐼against Can♏ada and Mexico. However, the March 4 deadline for the two countries still looms and tariffs on China were imposed earlier this week.

And even if Bessent pushes for Congress to approve Trump💙’s tax cut agenda, investors broadly expect the gridlock in Washington will impede the U.S. government from 𒁃borrowing much more.

“All these things that were su♔pposed to go wrong haven’t gone wrong,” David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “The other shoe isn’t dropping. We’re not getting the aggressive fiscal policy. We’re not getting a run-up of oil pri🍸ces.”

After flirting with 5% following Trump’s election, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is settling below 4.5%. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages also fell to an average of 6.89% this week, continuing to climb down after surpassing 7% last month, according to Freddie Mac.

Investors will have to “wait and see” whether the current momentum will continue, Russell said.

What's Keeping Long-Term Rates From Falling Further?

🅰At least for now🌺, there isn’t “huge room to the downside” for the 10-year yield, Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research for the Americas at the Dutch bank ING, wrote in a note to clients.

Though the Fed has far less control over long-term interest rates, the sh﷽ort-term rates it does set can ultimately add up to higher rate🎃s over time.

Garvey wrote that the Fed has become less aggressive in cutting short-term rates, which puts an “effective floor” on long-term borrowing costs. The Fed, wary that progress on inflation could stall, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:paused its interest rate cuts last week. It penciled in 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:two rate cuts for 2025 in its December projectionﷺs, fewer than it had foreseen in Septe𓂃mber.

A new update on inflation will come next Wednesday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the lateཧst consumer price index report. Recent inflation reports have “just about played ball,” helping the 10-year yield finally break below the 4.5% mark this week, Garvey wrote. But it’s not clear yet whether it will continue, he said.

“Enjoy the move lower while it lasts,” Garvey wrote.

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