Getting too little attention in coverage of President-elect Donald Trump's planned tariffs on China are their effect on items often found in your grocery cart: the garlic giving a kick to your pasta sauce, the apple juice in your kid's lunchbox, and the honey sweetening your tea—all of which the U.S. imports from China and which could soon carry higher price tags.
Instead, the political focus has been on America's massive electronics trade with China. Yet smartphones and other electronic equipment make up less than a third of the half-trillion dollars in Chinese goods the U.S. imports annually, with products like pharmaceuticals, apparel, and foodstuffs among the rest. Below, we take you through what th🍌ese ta෴riffs would mean for your grocery bill.
Key Takeaways
- A tariff is a tax imposed by a government on goods and services imported from another country. These taxes are often meant to increase the cost of foreign goods, shifting demand to domestic suppliers.
- While electronics, machinery, and plastic goods make up much of what the U.S. imports from China, Chinese food products and ingredients, including soaps, flour, seafood, and spices, are found throughout U.S. grocery stores.
- The proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods would affect not just imported products but also U.S.-made products that use Chinese materials for production, processing, and packaging.
Which Foods Will Cost More?
The impact of the Trump tariffs is likely to be felt as you stroll down many of your usual grocery aisles. Seafood could see some of the steepest price hikes—China supplied about $2 billion worth of fish and seafood products to U.S. markets in 2024. Everyday items like frozen shrimp and tilapia, heavily sourced from China, would likely see immediate price increases. Other foods, like salmon, typically produced in the U.S., are processed in China and thus are counted among Chinese goods.
Everyday cooking staples could also become more expensive. China is the world's largest garlic producer, accounting for over 80% of global production. American consumers might also notice price increases on items li🐻ke apple juice concentrate, certain teas and spices, and processed foods, many of which rely on Chinese ingredients.
Even American-grown produce could become pricier. U.S. farmers depend on Chinese-made fertilizers, while food manufacturers use Chinese materials for packaging and processing. Any increases in production costs would likely be passed on to consumers, affect🎃ing prices across the entire grocery store, from fresh produce to packaged foods. Here are the goods most likely to be affected:
- Apple juice
- Cereal
- Coffee
- Dairy products like milk products and eggs
- Fish and crustaceans
- Flour and starches
- Fruit and nuts
- Garlic
- Honey
- Vegetables (especially corn)
- Vegetable fats and oils
- Soaps, lubricants, waxes, candles, modeling pastes
- Spices
- Sugar
- Tea
- Vinegar
- Wheat
Will the Temu Loophole Be Closed?
In 2024, the Biden administration moved to close an exception that allowed popular cross-border ecommerce companies like Temu and Schein to avoid paying import taxes. The so-called "de minimus" loophole has meant that foreign firms shipping packages worth less than $800 could do so without the tariffs that would apply over that limit—an overwhelmed U.S. Customs and Border Patrol estimates that Americans received 1 billion parcels this way in 2024. Any changes to the rule wouldn't take affect until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
What This Means for Your Grocery Bill
The Peterson Institute for International Economics projects that a typical middle-income family could pay about $2,600 more annually for all goods, with much of that coming from increased food costs. Lower-income households, who spend a larger percentage of their income on groceries, 🌳would feeℱl the impact most.
The price increases wouldn't happen from one day to the next but over time. Retailers might absorb some initial cost increases to keep competitive, but will eventually have to pass the added costs on to consumers. Some grocery chains might find alternative suppliers from other countries, but establishing new 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:supply chains takes time and could increase costs as well.
The Bottom Line
If President-elect Trump's new trade policies are enacted as planned, economists say they will likely mean higher grocery store prices. The policies would increase prices on imported foods like garlic and seafood and 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:American-made products that rely on Chinese materials. While some 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:retailers and manufacturers might absorb initial cost increases or find alternative suppliers, consumers should prepare for gradually rising food prices in 2025 and beyond.