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Slowing Services Sector Activity Hinders U.S. Economic Outlook

S&P Global's Services PMI decelerated for the fourth straight month, and was barely above contraction territory

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Key Takeaways

  • Service sector activity slowed in September, according to the latest PMI surveys from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management.
  • At 50.1, S&P Global's Services PMI was barely above contraction territory.
  • A prolonged services slowdown could have profound implications on the economy, as services account for roughly four-fifths of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).

The services sector, which accounts for roughly four-fifths of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), is showing signs of weakness, according to the latest PMI surveys issued by S&P Global and the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结🔯果体💯彩网:Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

S&P Global's Services PMI, which gauges whether service sector activity is expanding or contracting based on a survey of business executives, fell to 50.1 in September—barely above contraction territory—which the index provider attributed to "weaker domestic and foreign client demand" that led to a decline in new orders. Any reading below 50 indicates business activity is falling.

"The biggest change in recent months has been the waning in demand for consumer services, such as travel, tourism and recreation, along with a slump in financial services activity, said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

It was the fourth straight month of 𓄧decelerating growth in the services sector. The latest reading is down more than 20 points from a pandemic-era high above 70 in May 2021, when the reopening from COVID-19 lockdowns led t🔯o a surge in business activity.

A separate survey released by ISM showed service sector activity expanded for the ninth straight month but at a slower pace than August, with the index reading down almost a percentage point from the previous month.

The slowdown in the services sector stands in contrast to signs of a rebound in manufacturing. S&P Global's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in September from 47.9 in August. While still in contraction territory, the index has rebounded from 46.3 in June.

What This Means for the Economy

Despite concerns over the past year that a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:recession may be looming, the U.S. economy has been resilient. Robust 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:consumer spending and a strong labor market, which defied expectations of a slowdown as the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, have powered the economy this year. Growth for the quarter ended September is expected to have been strong, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting a 4.9% pace of expansion.

A service🦩s slowdown co🦂uld undermine that momentum.

"The economy looks to be moving into the fourth quarter on a weak footing, hinting at slower GDP growth as we head toward the end of the year," S&P Global's Williamson said.

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