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What the Dip in Treasury Yields Says About Trump's Tariff Plans

Scott Bessent speaks at the National Conservative Conference in Washington D.C., Wednesday, July 10, 2024.

Dominic Gwinn / Middle Eไast Im𒀰ages/AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • Yields on 10-year treasuries plunged Monday after President-Elect Donald Trump announced late Friday that he had selected a Wall Street-friendly pick for the Treasury Secretary post.
  • The drop could reflect investors' optimism that Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager, would use his influence as Trump's top financial advisor to raise tariffs less aggressively than Trump has previously suggested.
  • During the presidential election campaign, Trump promised to raise tariffs to levels that many mainstream economists warn would put upward pressure on inflation.

On Monday, yields on 10-year treasuries slipped to their lowest in nearly a month, suggesting investors' concerns about tariffs and inflation may been allayed by one of Donald Trump's recent cabinet picks.

Yields plunged Monday, dipping to 4.27% by late afternoon from 4.41% at the end of trading Friday, hitting the lowest since Oct. 29. This is a turn for the 10-year, which surged to its highest levels since July in the wake of Trump's win in the pr🃏esident🅘ial election.

Investor concerns about inflation heavily influence Treasury yields, so some economists suggested the dip may reflect optimism among traders that Trump's pick of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Sꦆcott Bessent for Treasur𒐪y Secretary♏ could temper some of the president-elect's plans for tar💫iffs.

Economists widely believe Trump's campaign-trail proposals of high tariffs on foreign products—including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a tariff as high as 20% on goods from every other country—would push up prices for consumer products 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:and stoke inflation.

Bessent has voiced support for Trump's tariff proposals but has also said the threat of tariffs could be used as a negotiating tool 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:without actually implementing them.

"We do not believe he is a trade hardliner," Matthew Luzzetti, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, together with other economists, wrote in a research note to clients. "Bessent's presence should, therefore, act as a counterbalance to Trump’s most extreme impulses on tariffs, as well as other voices supporting these policies."

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