Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) has posted a dramatic increase in revenue in the last year as its ride-sharing business recovers from steep declines during the pandemic. To accelerate that recovery, Uber's ride-sharing and food delivery services are also expanding into local commerce delivery. Despite this progress, Uber faces major challenges, Analysts forecast that Uber will post its fourth straight annual loss in a row in fiscal 2022.

Investors will be watching closely to see how these trends are affecting Uber when the company reports earnings before the market on Aug. 2, 2022 for Q2 FY 2022. For Q2, analysts estimate that Uber will report its third loss per share out of the past four quarters, though the loss will be smaller than Q1. Despite this, analysts expect revenue to rise at a robust pace for the fifth quarter in a row.

Investors will also be focusing on Uber's gross bookings, a key metric indicating the total dollar amount generated by Uber's combined ride-hailing, delivery, and freight-shipping businesses. Analysts expect gross bookings to rise in Q2, though at a slower pace than recent quarters.

Uber's stock has dramatically underperformed the broader market in the past year. The stock briefly outperformed during the fall of 2021. But since then, the stock has embarked on a sharp decline marked by brief rallies and followed by steeper drops. Uber's shares continued their descent both just before and after the company's earnings reports in May. In the past 12 months, Uber has posted a total return of -47.5% compared to the -6.5% return of the S&P 500 as of July 31, 2022.

Uber's Earnings History

Uber’s earnings per share (EPS) track record has been marked by a long string of losses. The ride-sharing company posted losses per share in 13 of the last 15 quarters. Annual losses per share have narrowed from -$6.81 in FY 2019, just before the pandemic, to -$3.86 in FY 2020 and -$0.26 in FY 2021. For Q2 FY 2022, analysts estimate that Uber will report a loss per share compared to positive earnings in the same quarter a year earlier. For all of FY 2022, analysts expect Uber's loss per share to grow significantly in compared to FY 2021.

Uber’s revenue was hit hard during the pandemic as ride sharing plunged. Revenue fell 14.3% in FY 2020. The company saw a similarly dramatic rebound in FY 2021 as revenue rose 56.7 %. In Q1 of FY 2022 Uber more than doubled its revenue year over year (YOY). Analysts are expecting Uber’s revenue to rise by 87.2% YOY in Q2 FY 2022.

The Key Metric

As mentioned above, investors will also be focusing on Uber's gross bookings. This key metric is defined as the total dollar value, including applicable taxes, tolls, and fees, generated by Uber's ride-hailing, grocery and food delivery, and freight-shipping businesses. Gross bookings provides a snapshot of the scale of all of Uber's services. Gross bookings are positively correlated with Uber's revenue, the portion of gross bookings that the company claims as its own.

Uber posted two strong years of gross bookings growth in FY 2018 and 2019, then fell 10.9% in FY 2020 amid the pandemic. Since then, gross bookings have continued to improve, rising 56.2% YOY in FY 2021. Uber is responding to high gas prices and low availability of drivers by offering incentives to its drivers to maintain service, among other steps. For Q2 FY 2022, analysts expect gross bookings to rise 32.2%. For full-year 2022, they estimate gross bookings will rise 30.1%.