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Wall Street Is Antsier Than It's Been All Year

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

  • The Cboe Volatility Index, a measure of expected market volatility sometimes referred to as the "fear index," jumped to a year-to-date high Friday morning after a disappointing July jobs report.
  • Volatility has been on the uptick since mid-July when investors began dumping tech mega-caps to bet on small-caps in anticipation of lower interest rates.
  • While volatility could remain elevated, market breadth has held up in recent weeks, potentially offering some relief to diversified portfolios.

The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, jumped to its highest level all year on Friday morning after a troubling jobs report exacerbated Wall Street’♔s fears about a weakeninꦕg economy.  

The U.S. added just 114,000 jobs in July, according to Labor Department data released on Friday. The report also showed the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% from 4.1% in June, triggering the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Sahm Rule recession indicator

The VIX, a measure of expected market volatಌility, subsequently leaped 🅰nearly 10 points to as high as 28.25, its highest level since October 2022.

VIX over past 5 years

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Concerns Economy Won't Have a Soft Landing

Volatility was already on the uptick before Friday’s ominous jobs report. The VIX, sometimes called the “fear index,” hummed along below 15, a relatively low level indicating stability, from early May to mid-July. Simultaneously, the S&P 500 steadily crept higher as investors became increasingly confident the U.S. economy was coming in for a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:soft landing

But the calm in the markets was disrupted in mid-July when a soft inflation report sparked a sell-off in big tech stocks and 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:rotation into small-caps. Volatility began to rise amid the rotation and has accelerated in recent weeks after some 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:disappoinꦇting tech earnings reports ๊and💛, this week, signs of a weakening labor market.

Market Breadth Remains Intact

Analysts expect volatility to remain elevated as ec𓆏onomic and geopolitical uncertainty weigh🤡 on markets. 

But heightened volatility doesn’t necessarily mean stocks will f๊all.

“Fortunately, breadth remains solid with ~75.0% of the S&P 500 trading above its 200-DMA, providing longer-term investors with some solace,” wrote John Lynch, Chief Investment Officer at Comerica Wealth Management, in a note Friday. 

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  1. Comerica Wealth Management. "Jobs Report comments."

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