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What Recession? Model Shows GDP Growth Accelerating To 3.9% In 3rd Quarter

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While many forecasters are calling for a recession, a model of economic growth i꧃s projecting the economy to kick into high gear.

Key Takeaways

  • A running tracker of economic growth predicts the annual GDP growth rate to accelerate to 3.9% in the third quarter, from 2.4% in the second.
  • The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracker projects what the GDP will be based on current economic data. Official figures won't come out until October.
  • The GDP Now projection changes as new data comes in, so it won't necessarily hold up.
  • If the tracker proves accurate, accelerating GDP growth would be a sign of remarkable resilience for an economy under pressure from the Federal Reserve's high interest rates.

The gross domestic product, a broad measure of the country’s entire economic output, is on track to surge ahead to a 3.9% annual growth rate in the third quarter, up from the surprisingly high 2.4% growth rate posted in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP Now tracker showed on Tuesday. That would be the fastest the economy has grown since 2017, setting aside the bounce-back in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

“It's way too early to even peek at the Atlanta GDPNow's tracker for Q3. It's even more irresponsible to tweet it out to people that might think it means something at this stage,” Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard and former top economic advisor to President Barack Obama, posted on Twitter. “But I can't help myself: 3.9%.”

The GDP Now tracker uses current economic data to provide a running estimate of what the official third-quarter GDP figure will be when it’s released in late October. The tracker changes as new information comes in, and the economists who made it caution that it’s a volatile projection. 

If the tracker’s projection holds up, however, it would be another sign that the economy overall is humming along smoothly despite the attempts of the Federal Reserve to hit the brakes with its 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:campaign of anti-inflation interest rate 🅷hikes. Many forecasters have 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:called for the economy to slip intoꦇ a recession under the weight of the rate hikes, which have led to 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:higher borrowing costs and banks 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:pulling back on lending, both dragging on economic growth.

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