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‘Devil-May-Care’ Consumers Spent Freely In September, Report Shows

A man and a woman shopping, carrying multiple bags

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Key Takeaways

  • Retail sales jumped 0.7% in September from August, more than double the 0.3% forecasters had expected.
  • Consumers have kept spending, defying the expectations of economists who have expected high interest rates for consumer loans to slow them down.
  • The spending surge could stoke inflation fears, driving up yields for 10-year Treasurys and further increasing borrowing costs.

Can anything stop U.S. consumers from spending? Not so far, according to the latest figures on retail sales.

Shoppers spent a record high $704.9 billion at U.S. retailers in September, up 0.7% from August. That would have been the highest monthly jump since January, but August’s gasoline-driven surge in spending was upwardly revised to a 0.8% leap from 0.6%. The uptick in sales blew past the 0.3% increase forecasters had expected, according to surveys of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

The report showed household spending has stayed resilient despite the Federal Reserve’s campaign of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:anti-inflation interest rate hikes over the past year and a half. High rates have made borrowing more 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:expensive and more difficult, 澳洲幸🦩运5官方开奖结果体彩网:especially for big-ticket items like cars. This type of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:monetary policy is meant to discourage spending and allow supply and demand to rebalance, subduing high inflation. But high rates apparently haven’t hurt spending power enough to actually slow down sales.

“Do not pick a fight with the U.S. consumer,” Ali Jaffery, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. “Yet another consensus smashing retail report in September suggests that monetary restraint is a far way off from impacting the U.S. consumer.”

Some of the jump in the dollar value of sales was due to rising prices, but even after adjusting for inflation, sales rose 0.3%. Sales rose or held steady in every category of store except those that sell electronics and appliances, clothing and accessories, and building materials. Notably, motor vehicle sales rose 1%, spending at restaurants increased 0.9%, and online sales rose 1.1% over the month.

The burst in sales came despite factors that, according to economists, should be reducing the spending power of households. In addition to higher interest rates, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:mandatory payments on federal student loaܫns resumed in October, and inflation has forced some people to spend away 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体꧙彩网:money they saved during the ᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ⁤⁤⁤⁤ᩚ⁤⁤⁤⁤ᩚ⁤⁤⁤⁤ᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚpandemic

Some forecasters were openly frustrated.

“It has been a pencil-breaking torment to tally the impact of resumed student loans payments, diminished pandemic-era savings and higher cost of credit only to observe the devil-may-care mindset of a consumer that somehow finds a way to keep spending,” Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery, economists at Wells Fargo, wrote in a commentary. 

The fact that consumers are resisting the Fed’s attempts to slow them down will likely impact interest rates, economists said. The hot spending report could put upward pressure on yields on 10-year Treasurys, James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, wrote in a commentary. Those yields tend to rise on investor concerns about inflation—and the Federal Reserve 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:potentially r♒aising the fed funds rate in response to it.

What’s more, treasury yields are tied to mortgage rates, so the surprisingly spend-happy retail report could push up borrowing costs to homebuyers and pile on to the woes of a housing market already deadlocked by the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:highest mortgage rates in decades.

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