Key Takeaways
- After two relatively steady months, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October to 63.8, down from September’s 67.9.
- Consumers are worried that higher prices will worsen, with expectations that inflation will be 4.2% a year from now.
- High-income consumers showed the biggest drop in confidence, showing that spending could slow.
- Consumer expectations of inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high.
Inflation worries continue to weigh on consumers, who in October had a more pessimistic economic outlook than in September, according to the latest figures from the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment.
The final reading for October was 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果﷽体彩网:better than the preliminary reading released two weeks ago, improving to 63.8 from 63, but it’s still 6% lower than September’s revised reading of 67.9, and the first monthly decline after two months of little change. The result beat economists' forecasts, which anticipated that the final result would remain unchanged.
澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Inflation concerns worsened, with consumers’ expectation for price changes one year from now at 4.2%, the highest reading since May 2023, and up from the 3.2% year-ahead inflation ex🦩pectations that consumers had in September. For long-term inflation, representing prices five years from now, consumers see it reaching 3.0%, up from last month’s figure of 2.8%.
The report, especially consumers’ expectations on inflation, could also influence the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Federal Reserve, whic🐓h has engaged in a seri𓆉es of interest rate hikes in an effort to bring inflation down to a target annual rate of 2%.
“Elevated inflation expectations will reiterate the need for restrictive monetary policy among𒆙 Fed officials as they prepare for next week’s policy meeting,” wrote Oren Klachkin, market economist at Nationwide Financial.
Sentiment Falls Among High-Income Consumers
The latest consumer sentiment survey comes amid recent weakness in the stock market, with the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网𒈔:Nasdaq reaching its lowest level since May, adding to𝓀 fall𓆉s in other major indexes over recent weeks.
“This decline was driven in large part by higher-income consumers and those with sizable stock holdings, consistent with recent weakness in 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:equity markets,” wrote Joanne Hsu, dir🌺ector of the Michigan Surveys of Consuꦦmers.
The declining optimism from high-end consumers could spell trouble for 🥃the economy, Klachkin warned.
“This suggests that the potential boost to consumer spending from a favorable 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:wealth effect may dissipate,” he wrote.
Consumer expectations for business conditions over the next year fell 16%, while their expectations for their own finances fell 8𒁏%, reflecting worries about inflation as well as other negative news, both domestically and internationally.
Overall, the index for current economic conditions declined during the month, falling to 70.6 from September’s 71.1, while the consumer expectation index dived nearly 10%, falling to 59.3 in October from September’s 65.8.