Economic expectations in March haven’t been this low in over a decade, potentially signaling 💫a recession ahead.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined 7.2 points to 92.9 in March. That is the lowest level since 2021 and lower than the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

“Sentiment continues to wane among investors, consumers and businesses as economic concerns and economic policy uncertainty takes its toll,” said Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro. 

Expectations Index Drops Firmly Into Recession🌊 Territory

The results included a nearly 10-point drop in the Expectations Index, whic🔯h assesses consumers’ short-term outlook for income, bus♚iness conditions, and the labor market. 

The 65.2 reading in the index is the lowest in 12 years and comes in well below the threshold of 80, which usually signals a recession is ahead, the Conference Board report said. Nearly two out of three respondents believed it’s at least “somewhat likely” that the U.S. will go into recession during the next 12 mo👍nths. 

“Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board. 

Consumers Cite Worries Over Inflation, Tariffs

Confidence declined for the fourth month as consumers continued to worry about 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:President Donal♍d Trump’s tariff policies and the additional costs they may create. Indeed, the survey෴ showed that consumers think inflation will rise to 6.2% over the next 12 months, rising from the prior month.

“Write-in responses also showed that inflation is s✤till a major concern for consumers and that worries about the impact of trade policies and tariffs in particular are on the rise,” the report said. “There were also more references than usual to economic and policy uncertainty.”

The survey also showed that consumers were more꧒ pessimistic about their income prospect🍷s, while their outlook for the labor market also deteriorated. For the first time since 2023, consumers have turned negative on the stock market, with just 37.4% expecting stock prices to rise over the next year.

“Confidence deteriorated across most income and age cohorts, with older and higher income tranches recording the largest declines. This likely pa🌠rtly reflects the recent stock market downturn and could unwind if risk assets find their footing,” saiꦅd Oren Klachkin, financial market economist at Nationwide. 

The monthly confidence survey is just 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:the latest to show that consumers are increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy, especially given the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:uncertainty around tariffs.  Economists are closely watching consumer confidence surveys, which can have a 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:big impact on consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the U.S. economy.