Key Takeaways
- The fallout from President Donald Trump's trade war against America's largest trading partners is just beginning.
- Tariffs could cause rising prices, higher unemployment, and a general economic slowdown, economists predicted.
- Among the open questions are how long the tariffs will last, and whether certain products will be exempted from the new tariffs.
With President Donald Trump's long-threatened tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China now set to go into effect, U.S. businesses and households are bracing for a wide range of consequences.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump ordered 25% tariffs against most things imported from Mexico and Canada, with a smaller 10% tariff against Canadian oil, and a 10% tariff on Chinese products. Trump said the tariffs were aimed at stopping illegal immigration and drug smuggling, protecting American manufacturing, and returning the U.S. economic policy to the 1890s, before the creation of the income tax, when import duties funded the federal government.
Here's what to expect next.
How Long Will Tariffs Last?
It seems that tariffs could simmer down rather quickly if negotiations with Mexicoare any indication.
In separate social media posts Monday morning, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and Trump both confirmed that an agreement about the U.S.-Mexico border had been reached. The pair both said the implementation of the tariffs on the U.S.'s southern neighbor would be delayed by a month.
Canadian and Chinese tariffs were still set to be levied beginning Tuesday. However, they could be similarly negotiated either before or after their implementation.
"It’s still possible these tariffs get negotiated away within hours, days or weeks," Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a commentary Monday. "It’s also possible there are legal challenges which reverse their implementation."
Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote the tariffs against Mexico and Canada would "not remain in place for an extended period" and that certain products, such as building materials and transportation equipment, would be exempted.
Prices Could Rise, Economy Could Slow
If the tariffs do persist, however, it could have far-reaching economic implications. Trump acknowledged the tariffs could cause some economic hardship in pursuit of launching a new "golden age."
"WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!), [sic]" he posted on Truth Social.
Numerous analyses by economists predict that consumers will suffer higher prices, and merchants will pass the cost of tariffs on to their customers. The overall cost of living, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, is likely to rise 0.7%, equivalent to a typical household losing $1,200 of buying power, the Yale Budget Lab estimated.
Sweet wrote in a commentary that a trade war would drag down the U.S. economy, causing job losses and raising the unemployment rate. He forecast that the U.S. unemployment rate could rise as high as 4.5% this year, compared to 4.1% had the tariffs not been imposed, as the economy slows down.
Higher inflation and rising unemployment could pose a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, which is mandated to use monetary policy to keep inflation low and employment high. Sweet predicted the Fed would be caught between the need to reduce borrowing costs to boost the economy to prevent unemployment and raising them to slow down the economy and keep inflation in check.
The Trade War Could Expand
The scope of Trump's trade war could expand, causing further economic damage.
The Canadian government said it is charging a 25% retaliatory tariff on certain products from the U.S., including paper and beverages. According to a Chinese government website translated by several news outlets, the Chinese government would take "countermeasures," including filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization.
Trump's orders establishing the tariffs said the president could impose more tariffs in response to any retaliation, raising the possibility that the trade war could get even more costly.
Trump said Sunday in an interview with the BBC that tariffs against the European Union "would definitely happen," raising the possibility that the trade war could expand.