A widely watched labor report expected this week could indicate whether President Donald Trump's tariffs are hurting the job market.

A report on payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday is likely to show the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in April, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. That would be a downshift from the unexpectedly high 228,000 added in March, but would be the second-highest pace of job growth all year. Economists expect the unemployment rate to stay at 4.2%, within the small range it's maintained since last May, and not high by historical standards.

An unexpectedly low number of jobs added could signal that Trump's tariffs are dragging down the economy faster than experts have been counting on. Numerous experts are bracing for slowe♏r hiring and an uptick in layoffs as a result of the tariff policies currently in place. Employers report they've put investments and expansions on hold and are waiting for the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:tariff policy to settle.

How Do Tariffs Factor In?

Few economists expect the April jobs data to show much movement, even though many of Trump's levies took effect that month. His "澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Liberation Day" tariffs (announced April 2 and partially 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:paused April 9) could have a particular effect, economists said.

"It will be extraordinary if employment is unscathed this year by the jump in tariffs on imports, the drop in asset prices and the extreme economic policy uncertainty, which likely is causing many businesses to defer non-essential spending," Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a commentary. "None of the coincident indicators of payrolls that we regularly track, however, have weakened decisively, yet."

The jobs report will be the last in a week filled with economic data, including a report on the 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:Gross Domestic Product, 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:another on inflation, a survey on the manufacturing sector, and a survey of 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:consumer confidence. Out of that batch, the jobs report could prove the most significant for the trajectory of the economy, and whether it's headed for a recession anytime soon.

"If payroll jobs increase by 150k, give or take, which is the consensus, all the weak economic data released during the week will be forgotten, at least for a bit," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, posted on social media platform X. "Fingers crossed. But if employment increases by less than 100k, watch out."

Federal Reserve Officials Will𒆙 Likely Be Watching Jobs Data

Federal Reserve officials will be among those "watching out" for signs that the job market is weakening.

Fed policymakers are pursuing the central bank's 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结果体彩网:dual mandate to control inflation while keeping employment high. They have been waiting to see if the job market is in distress; a downturn could 澳洲幸运5官方开奖结🌠果体彩网:jolt the Fed out of "wait and see" mode and �𓄧�push them to cut interest rates to boost the economy and the job market.

So far this year, the Fed has kept interest rates higher than usual to subdue the last remnants of the post-pandemic inflation surge, which is still running above the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate.

If the job market stays strong, the Fed could keep borrowing costs high when its policy committee meets in May.

"A solid April employment report will encourage the Fed’s patient approach to resuming rate cuts,"  Jeremy Schwartz, research analyst at Nomura, wrote in a commentary. "We expect employment growth will continue to slow, and the uncertain headwinds from tariffs, deteriorating business sentiment, and federal layoffs leave risks skewed towards a sharper downturn."